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It’s been reported in the Australian, LNP Party insiders are said to be “increasingly concerned” about the emergence of a “McPherson Matters” group that is preparing a teal independent bid for this seat. LNP are moving fast with the preselection process to try withstand the teal threat with Maggie Forrest, barrister and the party’s honorary legal adviser reported as the frontrunner to replace Karen Andrews as the LNP’s candidate for McPherson.
Nightwatchman
I wonder what hope the teal movement has here? On the one hand, a retiring member provides the opportunity for change. On the other, the anti-Liberal and anti-Morrison momentum that most of the teals owe their victory to simply won’t be there as it was in 2022. As we saw in Victoria last year, they are nothing without that wave. Also, it is often suggested that the teal seats, the “drawing rooms of Toorak”, are the heartland of the Liberal party. If I were to name a heartland for the Liberal party, it would be here on the Gold Coast (and Cook). But still, if the Greens can take Ryan and Brisbane, who am I to claim to know anything about what goes on up there?
@douglas agree that the teals don’t really have a chance here the demographic is certainly more your typical retiree liberal rather then the blue ribbon inner city seats. Also the Greens winning in Ryan I don’t think was particularly surprising there was rumblings of either a lab or green win there for most of the election and the Greens hold Maiwar. Brisbane is far less divided on economic and cultural lines compared to the north south divide in Sydney for example so it allows for more “unexpected” results.
@turnbull srsly dude come on
@sam the libs fortunes in maiwar may determine their fortunes in Ryan or vice versa depending on when the fed is
From what I’ve heard, the Greens have a good chance of making it one of their priority seats if Currumbin or Burleigh can become much better for the Greens, which they have potential to. However it was rejected as a priority seat for them for the next election which is unlikely to change.
@Turnbull lol
I’d say Liberal retain. The Gold Coast still has many conservatives.
@Turnbull Seriously you’ve just justified why all women should vote against any male sitting for election with the attitude you have just displayed what you and your male counterparts think of women 😡
Leon Rebello has been preselected as the LNP candidate today
Almost-certain LNP retain. Lots of rusted-on LNP voters here.
This seat contains
1. `100% of Burleigh
2. 100 % of Currumbin
3. 46% of Mermaid Beach
4. 57% of Mudgeeraba
5. 9% of Surfers Paradise
Booths to be posted tommorow
Booths
1. Bonogin (joint)
2. Burleigh Heads
3. Burleigh Waters
4. Coolangatta
5. Currumbin
6. Currimbin West
7. Elanora
8. Kirra
9, Merrimac (joint0
10. Miami
11. Mudgeeraba
12. Palm Beach
13. Reedy Creel
14. Robina
15. Tallebudgera
16. Tallebudgera Valley
17. Tugun
18 Varisty Lakes
@Nimalan thanks, will calculate now.
State level TPP here (2024):
* LNP: 63.0%
* Labor: 37.0%
Labor did 3.7% better on the federal level in 2022 than on the state level in 2024.
As we can see, the LNP did better on the state level in all three of the federal seats on the Gold Coast.
Due to the absence of Meaghan Scanlon’s personal vote, this seat is more LNP on the state level than Moncrieff but not as much as Fadden.
*Meaghan Scanlon’s personal vote in Gaven which is mostly in Moncrieff
Thanks Nether Portal
We have now gone from Cape York all the way to Coolangatta along the East Coast. I will do Wright and Groom next week this will give you a break.
@Nimalan thanks. I remember when I was in Thailand I said I was gonna calculate Shortland when I got back, I completely forgot about that so I might have a look at that this week too.
Thanks Nether Portal
I can get Shortland ready for you. As there is OPV in NSW a breakdown of primary votes is also important to compare.
It hasn’t been noted yet in the comments but the Climate 200 backed candidate is Erchana Murray-Bartlett, who is notable for running 150 marathons back to back last year